Precrime — Market-Data Confirmation Dimension
Author: tankbottoms.eth Audience: architect
The structural EDGAR pass scores an entity from filings alone. Confirmation — the top of the signal-strength ladder in the overview — requires the predicted event to have actually occurred: a control / leadership change and a coincident move in the stock (abnormal volume + price dislocation). This page adds that dimension for the three case issuers.
A confirmation fires when a control filing (8-K Item 5.01/5.02, 2.01, a name change, a Reg-A reactivation, or a going-dark 15-12G) lands within a short window of a session where volume ≥ 3× its trailing-30-day median and price moves ≥ 15%.
RTSL — RTSL (468 sessions)
Control events from the case analysis (EDGAR-derived; live submissions API was rate-limited).
| confirmed filing | form | nearest dislocation | gap | volume | price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-16 | 15-12G |
2024-01-01 | 15d | 6.3× | 25% |
SGR Energy — non-public
SGR Energy (CIK 0001687025) has no public ticker — it raised capital through a Form-D-only / private mechanic, so there is no market-data dimension to confirm. This is itself the signal: the form_d_only_issuer heuristic.
GP Solutions — GWPD (161 sessions)
Control events from the case analysis (EDGAR-derived; live submissions API was rate-limited).
| confirmed filing | form | nearest dislocation | gap | volume | price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-20 | 1-A |
2019-10-01 | 11d | 7.3× | 55% |
Summary
| issuer | ticker | sessions | control events | dislocations | confirmations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTSL | RTSL |
468 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| SGR Energy | — | non-public | — | — | — |
| GP Solutions | GWPD |
161 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Data:
data/stock-history.json(served at/data/stock-history.json). Generated byscripts/fetch-stock-history.ts(Yahoo/Stooq OHLCV + EDGAR control events) andscripts/render-stock-charts.ts.